Cédric Villani, Fields Medalist 2010, Misses Re-election By a Hair

/ Yom sheni, 21 Sivan, 5782 

by David Orenstein, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
david.orenstein@alumni.utoronto.ca

According to this morning’s online Le Monde, consulted at 7:00 am EDT = 12:00 Noon BST, 2010 Fields Medallist, Cédric Villani, lost his bid for re-election, as the candidate of the left-wing collation La Nouvelle Union populaire écologique et sociale (NUPES), by a hair. 

Last week I posted about his background and reported the results of his campaign in the 1st round of elections for the French National Assembly. Then, he came in first with 38.20 % of the vote, or 14,830 supporters. That’s against the runner-up, Paul Midy of La République en Marche (LREM), the party of French President Emmanuel Macron, (30.53%; 11,849).

But on Sunday, June 19, Villani lost. But by just a hair, or de justesse, as they say in French. Villani was only 19 votes behind Midy, or 18,668 to 18,687. In percentages it’s a difference of 50.03% - 49.97% = 0.06%.

For Villani it was a gain of 49.97% -38.20% = 11.77%, compared to Midy’s 50.03% - 30.53% = 19.50%. Why such a big difference in growth?

I surmise that it is because the 3rd and 4th place first round candidates were from the right: Michel Bournat of the conservative Les Républicains (LR) at 16.03 % or 6,222 votes, and Christophe Debon of the extreme right, populist Rassemblement national (RN), 7.15 % and 2,774.

From my reading of the situation, LREM is a moderate conservative party, and thus more attractive to the supporters of LR or RN than a left-wing coalition like NUPES. Much the same participation rate operated between the two rounds of voting, 57,57 % in the 1st, and 56,89 % in the 2nd. Thus, differential abstention didn’t apply.

With the results so close, there might be a recount. Who knows? 

Links:

1)Le Monde, June 19, 2022, 2nd Round in Villani’s constituency, the 5th in the Department of Essonne:
https://www.lemonde.fr/politique/article/2022/06/19/cedric-villani-battu-sur-le-fil-dans-la-5e-circonscription-de-l-essonne-cette-fois-ci-sous-les-couleurs-de-la-nupes_6131128_823448.html

 2)Encyclopedia Britannica Online, Cédric Villani article:
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Cedric-Villani

3)NUPES Election Programme:
https://nupes-2022.fr/le-programme/

4)Le Monde, Results in from the 5th Constituency of Essonne:
https://www.lemonde.fr/resultats-elections/ile-de-france/essonne/

5) BSHM First Round Cédric Villani Blog Post:
https://www.bshm.ac.uk/cédric-villani-fields-medalist-2010-way-re-election-france